Survivor: China Post Season Editing Analysis

For those unfamiliar with it, Edgic is essentially using a combination of editing and game logic to not only determine the winner, but the likely placements for much of the cast as well. It's far from foolproof, but it can be a fun way to analyze the season and potentially improve your predictions for the office pool without resorting to spoilers.

beatles20147 - 12.24.07

Well, we've wrapped up an excellent season of Survivor, easily the best one since Pearl Islands. And as always, I made a bunch of predictions, most of which turned out to be flat-out wrong. But alas, all of these columns remain up, so this time, I can't hide behind them. Instead, I'll embrace them as we take a look back with a very special edition of beatles' Edgic column…

WEEK 1

"Don't worry; I have no intention of getting a new all-time favorite, but don't be surprised if I make a comment like 'I am seriously in love with Courtney' in a few weeks. In fact, be surprised if I don't. Unfortunately, she made an immediate negative impression with viewers—that's not really a good sign for her chances of making it super-far, because I can't really see them trying to make a Kathy-esque comeback story with someone like Courtney."

Well, I was right about me loving her, does that count? I'm incredibly glad I was wrong about her making it far; she was the best.

"Which brings me to a scene that was an exception, and is obviously going to pay off somehow later on: Todd and Jean-Robert's 'I can tell you're clever' chat. In the context of the premiere, it made little sense, other than to get in a reminder that Jean-Robert is a professional poker player. The obvious guess here is that either one of the two will lead to the other's exit, or the pair will form an alliance down the road—or maybe both. Obviously Jean-Robert's strategy worked at least a little bit, as it instilled paranoia in Todd. "Don't tell anyone that you think I'm smart, I don't want them to know that." As we saw in the preview, Jean-Robert is called out for being lazy next week. Will he be a target and make a last-ditch effort and reach out to Todd for help? More often than not, the previews are red herrings, so I'm going to guess that we won't see anything more than small bits and pieces of their relationship until later down the road, assuming they both last that long."

They were allies (at least from Jean-Robert's perspective) and the scene did pay off, but it was actually the winner giveaway that didn't catch my eye that first week.

"Sherea's "I'm not so good in the outdoors" story is reminiscent of Cirie's story in the Panama premiere, only the "fun underdog" angle is replaced by the "miserable party pooper" angle. Don't expect her to last as long as Cirie, and if she makes it past the next few weeks, I'll bet that she gets an under-the-radar edit just because it's such a depressingly boring storyline and she seems about as exciting as Vecepia."

She lasted five more weeks and was under the radar at the beginning but emerged later as a huge character in her last three episodes. So I get half-credit here.

"Nobody called James out as being too much of a loner, so I'm wondering why they stressed that he needs to charm people. Will he be another Matthew and enter the game with no social skills and emerge as one of the best players? Or is he just another Brandon—a quiet, likable guy who will be too big a target to keep around after the merge? Logic would dictate that he won't leave pre-merge—he's quite possibly the physically strongest player ever. His antisocial nature might make him a decoy boot in early episodes if Fei Long makes the trek to Tribal, but I'll be banking on amazing comeback story."

He certainly didn't turn into a great player at any point—he left with two guaranteed safety nets in his pocket. All in all, this scene never really came into play. I think it was included as an early way of making James into the fan favorite.

"Aaron was built up as a cautious leader—he made sure to subtly step into the role (although it wasn't quite as subtle as he thought, since Todd called him out on it before the challenge), but he wasn't as cocky and assured as many past early leaders. If his physical and social prowess weren't enough to convince me that he'd be safe for a little bit, his edit certainly was. He seemed likable enough that if he can continue his leadership role past the first few merge Tribal Councils (i.e. if Fei Long enters the merge with a majority) he might do very well."

Damn you, twists!

"I would probably pick James as of right now, but that's completely out of the blue"

Damn you, not using hidden idols!

WEEK 2

"Todd of course is one of the biggest characters of the season, and as cool as he seems, his edit does seem reminiscent of the past few seasons in that he seems to get more airtime than others for no real reason. But I'll steal a cue from a Suckster, Pulua Tiga, who has pointed out a few similarities between Amanda's edit so far and Danni's."

Damn you, Pulua Tiga!

"Over at Zhan Hu, the bulk of the airtime consisted of the Dave/Ashley fight, so basically all we got out of that was that a) Dave isn't gonna win, and b) Sherea is like a less interesting, more miserable version of Judd—she briefly complains back at camp and then explodes at Tribal Council. I still don't see her sticking around too long, so I don't know if she'll ever move out of this edit the way Judd did."

She didn't, which is a shame because we saw in the recap episode that she was actually kind of fun. And Dave didn't win but you didn't need me to tell you that.

"So now…who's winning this thing? Todd seems like a good candidate, as he's always been shown to have his head on his shoulders. I still don't think James is totally out of the running, and Amanda could have a Danni-like winning edit here, although hopefully with some more visibility…and for once, I don't mean that as a joke about her top coming off."

My first acknowledgement of Todd and Amanda as winner candidates, although I actually might have been leaning towards Amanda at this point.

WEEK 4

"Aaron's airtime has dropped somewhat from the first two weeks—he's always been a bit bland, but when he isn't feuding with Jean-Robert or trying to 'subtly' lead, he doesn't have much to say. Still, he's never completely ignored, so I wouldn't count him out just yet—and if a younger alpha male wins for the fourth season in a row, they probably would want to downplay his edit."

Downplay a male winner? I crack myself up sometimes!

"Amanda pops in from time to time, occasionally with a strategic comment but usually her airtime is fluff or flashing her boobs at challenges. Her edit is nowhere near as strong as most people seem to think, and I think it's obvious why that is. Nonetheless, there's been no reason to knock her out of winner contention from the edit."

I was right—there was an Amanda wins spoiler. But I did let everyone picking her convince me that she was still a possible winner when I should've had the guts to knock her out long before.

"Courtney's still my favorite, and like Amanda, I don't think she's gotten the "winner edit" but other than a few possibly crass comments in the first episode (negative first impressions aren't a good sign), there's no reason to discount her either. One thing working against her chances was that the recap of the most recent episode harped on her poor performance at last week's immunity challenge and made no mention of Jean-Robert and James's crude discussion about her. To be totally not objective, I'm hoping she laughs cynically all the way to the bank. But objectively, I think we might be in for an alternating positive and negative edit until her eventual boot. Please prove me wrong!"

They proved me wrong! Ok, so she did kind of get an alternating positive and negative edit, and she didn't win…but she never got booted either. I'm a glass-full kind of guy.

"Jean-Robert on the other hand was pretty negative for the first three weeks—and then out of nowhere spoke Mandarin and got a pretty positive edit this week. His strategy has moved into phase 2, and it seems to be working. Could this be the ultimate comeback story, or did he start too negatively to win the million? Comeback edits generally don't result in victory, as I'm sure Kathy can attest to."

I was either completely wrong here, or it was the worst attempt at a comeback edit ever. What do you think is more likely?

"I'm going with Todd again, but at the same time I think we're due for a female winner (at least I hope so)."

I believe that week 4 is when I officially picked Todd as the winner. I would've loved to see Courtney or Peih-Gee win but you know, Todd being the fourth male winner in a row isn't a bad thing; he played a great game.

WEEK 6

"One of the biggest arguments supporting an Amanda victory is that female winners tend to be under-edited. And to be honest, a quiet beauty queen triumphing over a gay Mormon isn't something that hasn't happened before on Survivor, so it could happen again. I think she has a chance, but for most viewers, she's nothing more than Todd's lackey. We haven't seen any of the subtle manipulation like we did with Rafe and Danni. I'm surprised she has as much support as she does, considering that she isn't playing that differently from the under-the-radar coattail riders people acclaim her for not being. Then again, Rafe and Danni's storyline didn't start until the merge, so there's certainly time for this story to advance in her favor."

This was around the time when Amanda was pretty much seen as an equally possible winner as Todd in Edgic (and eventually she overtook him). I really think people were putting too much weight into the spoiler and/or their desire to see another female winner when it came to picking Amanda. And that's not the way Edgic is supposed to work (especially the spoiler part).

"Ever since the negative reaction to Jenna Morasca's victory in Amazon (don't even get me started), the editors have been very cautious to make the winners likable and at least semi-positive. In the pre-Amazon days (and China is pretty reminiscent of those), Jean-Robert would certainly be a possible winner based on his edit. But it's not going to happen. Sigh."

Interestingly enough, Todd probably had the most negativity of any winner since Chris. He was far from negative overall but at least we got some depth unlike with Danni or Yul.

"And that leaves Todd Herzog…my winner prediction. It took me a few weeks to come around to his side—as a winner, that is. As a character, I still find him incredibly generic and overusing strategic clichés, but part of that's the editors' fault too. But after three seasons of the winner being essentially like this, why would that pattern change? But let me add the standard 'He seems like a nice guy' disclaimer, and Todd, if you're reading this, drop me a line and maybe we could go grab a bite to eat or something. Of course, I'd expect you to treat me, being that you're the one with the million bucks, you know."

He does seem like a nice guy, and Todd, you know how to contact me on Sucks. I assume Chinese?

WEEK 7

"No, Todd's real doubt came with a scene that did not have to be included at all—Jean-Robert's threat. It was clear from the duo's scene in the premiere that this was going to be a critical relationship in the game, and Jean-Robert has now set the stage for what may happen."

I'm freakin' brilliant sometimes.

"But that brings me to my dark, dark horse pick for the winner—Courtney. Most people have given up on her chances, but this scene gives me hope that the best post-ASS female may take home the prize."

And not so much at others. But hey, she came close!

"I suppose Amanda's support comes out of Danni's win four seasons ago. Just like Guatemala was the story of how Steph lost the game, some people think that China will be the story of how Todd loses. One problem with this theory: the editors have no reason to single out Todd from the fourteen others to show why he loses."

I don't want to say I told you so, but this was what killed Amanda's chances of winning for me. Todd was cocky, but he wasn't so negative that people would be happy to see him lose in the final three and someone else win "by default."

"Based on the way the game is going, as well as the edit, I think Erik's the likely pick to take the long walk home this week"

This prediction was actually meant for my column for three weeks later. It somehow slipped into this one, so I wouldn't blame you for thinking that I was wrong. But trust me, I must've just forgotten to proofread. Won't happn agen===

WEEK 9

"I know [Amanda's] the popular pick, but I still think that if she were the winner, she would be shown as less of a lackey, and we'd have more than one or two scenes where she shows herself to be the half of the alliance with her head on straight."

Logic > spoilers.

"I'm not a fan, but there isn't enough backlash that would make viewers satisfied with someone winning against Todd by default…'You're not Todd' would make sense for Jean-Robert's vote, but that's about it."

Of course I pick a guy who actually voted for Todd. Chalk this one up to another proofreading error.

WEEK 11

"Gamewise, an Amanda/Courtney/Todd F3 is making the most sense. Edgically, it's Courtney/Todd/Peih-Gee. Of course, what I'm hoping for is that Jaime gets kicked off the jury because they finally realize that nobody likes the final three. So bring on the Courtney/Peih-Gee final two!"

The only pro to Jaime being on the jury would be the possibility of Courtney doing her spot-on impression to Jaime's face. I hate the final three. But I got it right though.

So that's it for a fantastic season of Survivor. Next stop: Micronesia in early February. I'll do my best to be back for this one, even if I'm not particularly loving the concept. Thanks for reading, and I'll see you then!