Survivor: China Editing Analysis

For those unfamiliar with it, Edgic is essentially using a combination of editing and game logic to not only determine the winner, but the likely placements for much of the cast as well. It's far from foolproof, but it can be a fun way to analyze the season and potentially improve your predictions for the office pool without resorting to spoilers.

beatles20147 - 12.10.07

Final Overview of the Game and the Edit. Jury Connections with the Final Five

JAIME
Amanda: ?
Courtney: Courtney did a less-than-flattering impersonation of Jaime, but it wasn't to her face and was only shown in the recap.
Denise: ?
Peih-Gee: Consistent tribemates; threw the fifth IC together--partners in crime
Todd: Jaime tried to talk idol strategy with him after the merge

JEAN-ROBERT
Amanda: Had the hots for her, and thought he was in an alliance with her and Todd--holds her less responsible for his boot; she found him annoying
Courtney: Feud throughout the entire season; had the hots for her to a degree; "If she makes it past the next TC she's the luckiest Survivor ever"
Denise: Mutual friends with James; considered her one of the strongest women on Fei Long; she found him annoying
Peih-Gee: Pushed for her to get the boot at the merge: "I don't want to be liking this girl in a few days"; she voted the same way he did at his boot TC--possibly talked strategy at some point
Todd: Duh...the threat at the merge; thought the two were allies; Todd found JR annoying

FROSTI
Amanda: Went on the boat reward together but they didn't really interact much; screwed up her and Todd's idol discovery; seemed friendly but never tight
Courtney: They flirted; she appeared emotional when he was booted
Denise: ?
Peih-Gee: Initial tribemates; beat him for immunity at F8; seemed friendly with each other but after the switch they weren't really on the same page; "Frosti didn't make eye contact"
Todd: Seemed very friendly, moreso than with Amanda but not as much as with Courtney; screwed up his and Amanda's idol discovery; Todd flat-out told him he was going to be the next boot to ensure his allegiance (only shown in recap though)

JAMES
Amanda: Organized his boot; he thought they were in a F4 alliance
Courtney: Had the hots for her; he thought they were in a F4 alliance
Denise: Loved her; probably the two hardest workers
Peih-Gee: Argued on several occasions; she tried to align with him a few times (I think I'm missing some here for sure)
Todd: Todd almost booted him at F9; James thought they were in a F4 alliance; Todd gave James one idol and info on how to get the other

ERIK
Amanda: "I want Erik to stay around as long as possible"; laughed a little too hard at his goat impression
Courtney: Went on the boat reward but didn't seem to interact all that much; agreed with him regarding Todd's sister's miscarriage
Denise: Tried to get her on his side with no success
Peih-Gee: Tribemates throughout; always commented that the pair lost so much; picked him first to go on temple reward
Todd: Seemed friendly but never really all that tight; Erik doubted Todd's sister's miscarriage

The remaining five players are presented in alphabetical order:

AMANDA

Courtney: Courtney dubbed Amanda one of the people who annoyed her the least on Fei Long; they've been consistent allies throughout

Denise: Allies who were probably tighter in reality than they're being presented

Peih-Gee: When Peih-Gee told Amanda that James had both idols, she replies, "I'm not stupid"; called Peih-Gee annoying on a reward

Todd: They've been very tight allies from the start; he shared his clues to the idol with her despite chastising Leslie as being dumb for doing the same; have disagreed on some boot decisions but always voted together – generally in Amanda's favor

COURTNEY

Amanda: Allies but not as tight with each other as they each are with Todd

Denise: Very loose allies

Peih-Gee: Went on a reward together but didn't interact all that much; when Peih-Gee expressed her desire to outlast Jean-Robert, she promised to vote for either Denise or Courtney in the end if it happened

Todd: Mostly friendly allies who have had their differences; she felt that he didn't defend her aptly against Jean-Robert; he called her a bitch

DENISE:

Amanda: Shown to be loose allies—Denise was out of the loop on select votes; selected her for the family reward for no apparent reason

Courtney: Shown to be very loose allies

Peih-Gee: Peih-Gee frequently tried to get Denise on her side; Peih-Gee picked Denise to go on the temple reward but was upset when the favor wasn't returned when Denise won the family reward

Todd: Allies but she has been out of the loop on votes; she picked him to go on the family reward

PEIH-GEE

Amanda: "I'm not stupid, Peih-Gee"; Amanda found Peih-Gee annoying but the preview shows that they discuss strategy heavily this week (final five)

Courtney: Went on a reward together but didn't interact all that much; when Peih-Gee expressed her desire to outlast Jean-Robert, she promised to vote for either Denise or Courtney in the end if it happened

Denise: Peih-Gee frequently tried to get Denise on her side; Peih-Gee picked Denise to go on the temple reward but was upset when the favor wasn't returned when Denise won the family reward

Todd: Clashed a little bit but don't have that much of a relationship (I've got to be forgetting something here…)

TODD

Amanda: Obvious long-time allies

Courtney: Allies that aren't quite as tight as Todd/Amanda but seem to be working together consistently since the merge

Denise: Allies but not super-close; she picked him to go on the family reward

Peih-Gee: See above

To sum up:
Amanda: Has mostly minor ties with the jury so far

Courtney: Has major ties with two jurors and less significant ones with the others (although Jaime's is pretty much entirely meaningless)
Denise: Only true ties would be James and arguably Erik
Peih-Gee: Has inarguable ties with every single juror, most of them very major
Todd: Has ties with all of them, some more meaningful than others

Gamewise, an Amanda/Courtney/Todd F3 is making the most sense. Edgically, it's Courtney/Todd/Peih-Gee. Of course, what I'm hoping for is that Jaime gets kicked off the jury because they finally realize that nobody likes the final three. So bring on the Courtney/Peih-Gee final two!

I'm still sticking with Todd as my winner prediction. I know he seems too obvious to some people, but Aras and Earl were too. So yes, I'm expecting a fourth male win in a row. Somehow that's not quite as thrilling as I thought it would be after Palau when I made a comment that if all winners like Tom, the awesomeness would be worth the predictability. Yeah right. So I do hope I'm wrong here, although I really don't want to see Amanda win. It's been a great season, and other the final three, I'm hoping for a great finale. Remember, next week I'll be doing my own little recap episode with some updates on my predictions from past columns. Should be fun. So to conclude…go Courtney and Peih-Gee!